Welcome to the Tesla Space newsletter, our 106th issue.

I’ll start this one out with some wishes:

Happy New Year — may it be electric!

Tesla and Elon hit the ground running with the new year, so we’ll get going right away

In today’s newsletter:

  • Tesla now confirmed to enter two new markets: Estonia and Latvia;

  • 2025 delivery numbers are in: 1,636,129 Teslas (-8% YoY);

  • Model Y, per Elon, wins world’s best-selling car title again;

  • 7 Tesla Cybercabs now actively street-testing;

  • ~170 Tesla Y robotaxis in public service today, Tesla registered 1.6k ahead of time for SF;

  • Elon’s reply to NVIDIA’s new robotaxi system

  • Supercharging’s massive scale and Semi charging at 1,206 kW;

  • We’ll share the 2025 Starlink Progress Report;

  • xAI announced raising another $20B in funding today;

… and lots more, as usual. Enjoy!

— Jaan

Before we kick off the newsletter, here’s our latest video: Why Tesla AI Will Take Over In 2026!

Done with the video? Nice. Let’s carry on with the newsletter 👇

X OF THE WEEK

Well, someone was in a merry mood over Christmas…

but… “Amazing Abundance”? Seriously?

By the way, in our last newsletter, I asked if you’re likely to purchase shares of SpaceX if it goes for an IPO (which we saw hints of). Here’s how you answered:

When the SpaceX goes public (IPO), I will:

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Certainly buy some shares (71.0%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Buy depending on valuation (22.6%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Not buy any shares (6.4%)

I’ll highlight some of the comments as well. Thank you all for leaving your input!

Bob would not buy any: “It would be a very high-risk investment at any valuation. One space ship exploding, and it’s all over.”

Rogers would certainly buy: “SpaceX’s valuation should be interesting. It currently has a real lead in launching satellites and satellite communication but with its objective of Mars colonization the payoff could be a long way off as it’s using all the cash it generates to further the Mars goal. ”

K would too: “This is the biggest no-brainer since TSLA. How do I get shares in XAI as a TSLA owner??”

Jaan’s note on this: no direct way to get xAI exposure through TSLA as of now due to not reaching supermajority on latest annual meeting in favor of it, but I do believe they haven’t killed the idea. Hopefully before the valuation runs away too much.

Antonio would not buy any: “Missing option: I will SELL all the shares I already own in SpaceX! (yes, a few people have SpaceX shares, bought on secondary markets when SpaceX performed buybacks from employees!)”

Jaan’s note on this: Interesting problem to have there, my friend.

W would buy: “I’m afraid the stock will debut at around $400 and be a roller coaster. Rise like a rocket, then each time a “rapid disassembly” occurs, the stock will “rapidly descend” as well. Ascend. Repeat. ”

Robert would too: “I hope Elon structures the IPO so that his loyal Tesla individual shareholders have access to SpaceX IPO shares. It would be great to have priority over the Insiders/Speculators that want a quick profit turn. I would plan to hold onto my shares (as I have with Tesla) and pass them on by gift to my grandchildren.”

Jaan’s note: Elon has promised to try and add some preferential to TSLA holders, but not sure if possible.

R wrote: “Advise when available, also what status of PI Phone and PI Pad we to to a Tesla dealer they no nothing about. Also checked Amazon and Walmart website avertize via YouTube had nothing”

Jaan’s note on this since I’ve heard the question elsewhere too: I’m sorry to say but there is NO PI Phone nor Pad anywhere in Tesla’s development cycle. It is highly likely that Tesla or Elon will never pursue this, and in a recent Joe Rogan interview Elon mentioned that he expects phones to actually just turn into AI nodes where you don’t actually need a phone itself at all anymore.

Aaaaallright, let’s get to the newsletter shall we?

TESLA NEWS

wrapped these in our flag colors

In news that I myself happened to break today: Tesla’s official entities have recently registered two new business entities for market entry: in Latvia (Tesla Latvia SIA) and in Estonia (Tesla Estonia OÜ). If the market entry follows the timeline of Lithuania, we’ll see the official Tesla Store and Service locations up in March or April.

These are two small countries in Eastern Europe that won’t move the needle for Tesla on the large scale, but nevertheless help the few thousand current owners with service centers (Model 3 is the most-registered EV in both even without any official presence), and any new prospective owners.

I happened to mostly sniff this out just because I myself live in that little country called Estonia. Yes, that’s why my name looks so weird. ;)

Tesla’s Q4 and 2025 numbers are in.

For the whole year, Tesla produced 1,654,667 and delivered 1,636,129 vehicles (-8% compared to 2024).

We expected a rough even or a drop of Tesla’s sales so that -8% Year over Year (YoY) is fine, and actually much less than all the doomsayers predicted once Elon got ‘politically active’.

The energy storage deployments continue to break records, at 46.7 GWh (+49% year over year).

If Elon’s Q3 earnings call discussion was anything to go by, we’ll see Tesla ramp up vehicle production significantly considering he counts FSD mostly solved. Earnings call January 28th 5:30 p.m ET

But perhaps this is a good time to take a quick look at where Tesla has come — Sawyer put Tesla’s deliveries into historical context:

2012: ~3,000
2013: 22,442
2014: 31,655 (+41% YoY)
2015: 50,517 (+59% YoY)
2016: 76,243 (+51% YoY)
2017: 103,091 (+35% YoY)
2018: 245,491 (+138% YoY)
2019: 367,656 (+50% YoY)
2020: 499,535 (+36% YoY)
2021: 936,222 (+87% YoY)
2022: 1,313,851 (+40% YoY)
2023: 1,808,581 (+38% YoY)
2024: 1,789,226 (-1% YoY)
2025: 1,636,129 (-8% YoY)

As great timing, Tesla just produced its 9-millionth vehicle globally, at Giga Shanghai:

Oh, and per Elon (unconfirmed for now):
"Tesla Model Y is now officially the world’s best-selling car for the third year in a row!"

Peter Diamandis just released a 2h25min interview out of Giga Texas with Elon called “Elon Musk’s 2026 Vision: AGI Timelines, China’s Rise, Job Markets, and Clean Energy”

Somenotes (I’ll have more next week):

Elon on Roadster: “It will be a cool demo. If safety is your #1 goal, don’t buy the Roadster. We’ll aspire not to kill anyone in this car. It’ll be the best of the last of the human driven cars.”

Elon on Tesla’s next-gen Cortex 2 GPU training cluster: “That will be 500MW and operational middle of next year (2026).”

“I think they’re getting clean rooms wrong in these modern (chip) fabs. I’m going to make a bet here, that Tesla will have a 2nm fab, and I can eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar in the fab.” 2nm?!

Some quicker notes:

  • 🇺🇸 Leasing is now available for the Model 3 & Y standard and new Model Y Performance in the US.

  • The redesigned Tesla Semi was spotted by Zanegler’s drone for the first time

notice the lightbar up front

  • Tesla has posted a new video on their career website, featuring Cybercab testing, Optimus building, crash testing, cell manufacturing, and more.

    They also now have specific job sections for Robotaxi, Optimus, FSD (Supervised), vehicles, Megapack, etc.

PS! Did you know we released the Robotaxi Report right before the holidays, to our Tesla Space Insiders?

It’s Part I of III of my exclusive research in the robotaxi industry and how Tesla places in it. Part II dropping soon 👀

FSD & ROBOTAXI & SOFTWARE

Cybercab at night, by Adan Guajardo. Imagine how our streets will look like with thousands of these…

There are now at least 7 Tesla Cybercabs testing on public roads in Austin and the Bay Area, per this (magnificently built) robotaxi tracker.

ridin’ together

The tracker currently shows Tesla has 35 rider vehicles still in Austin spotted and logged by people, and 137 in Bay Area.

Now, the Tesla 2025 recap video showed ‘Started Cybercab Production’ which caused some buzz in the community. Elon calmed it down saying: “Just testing the production system. Real production ramp starts in April.”

Elon wrote, on Christmas day: "A Tesla with no safety monitor in the car and me sitting in the passenger seat took me all around Austin on Sunday with perfect driving".
Ashok also shared a video about one such ride.

Elon comments on Cybercab: "And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface"

Also, on the robotaxi scale-up in case you missed the news — Tesla has registered 1,655 vehicles for its Bay Area ride-hailing service with the CPUC. These aren’t in service yet but shows a likely massive push from Tesla soon.

A recent US Coast-to-coast, no-intervention FSD ride done by a Tesla owner David Moss went really wide on the Internet in the NY eve. He has done 11,654.2 miles without interventions by now, find his coast to coast story and stats, verifiable straight from Tesla’s system through APIs in this thread.

FSD Competition from NVIDIA?

NVIDIA has been putting together a full AI stack for self-driving for a while, and has been partnering with a lot of automakers & robotaxi players that will run it. Now, NVIDIA released Alpamayo at CES 2026, which is basically the first real competitor to FSD, not relying on LiDAR but pure vision. NVIDIA calls it “the world’s first thinking, reasoning, autonomous vehicle AI.”

Elon’s response is important here, and two-fold in different spots across X. I’ll gather ‘em for you. One:

On another spot, he said: “I honestly hope they succeed”

Meanwhile, Jensen Huang just praised Elon/Tesla on a Bloomberg interview: “

“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not in somewhat secondary to that first part.

Ours is also vision based, we also have radar and LiDAR. Elon’s approach is about as state of the art as anybody knows. It’s a stack that’s hard to criticize. I wouldn’t criticize it. I would encourage them to continue doing what they’re doing. They’re doing a great job.”

SUPERCHARGING

Tesla Supercharging launched Q4 stats continue to be mind-blowing. +19% YoY in network growth with 3.8k Supercharger stalls opened, 1.8 TWh delivered (+27% YoY).

52 million Supercharging sessions in Q4 alone. Superchargers have delivered 6.7 TWh in 2026:

To give you a quick comparison, that’s roughly as much as my country’s total yearly consumption, for the whole country. Or enough to power ~600k US homes for a full year.

And outside China, Superchargers delivered more energy than all other fast chargers combined

If you’re into the charging side, Tesla also put together a 2025 Charging Highlights article on X.

Tesla released a video of the Tesla Semi reaching a 1.2MW (1,206kW) charging speed. And the redesigned Tesla Semi was also filmed live for the first time.

Myth-busting: this Autoblog FUD-filled headline is false.

Autoblog runs a story calling Tesla Diner a Ghost Town which also was picked up by others. A very recent video from the spot show that absolute opposite is true, people literally waiting in line, others confirm. The diner generated over $1M in Q4 revenue, selling over 30k burgers and 83k fries orders, more than an average McDonald's.

MUSKONOMY

SpaceX:

Elon on a comment about SpaceX producing Starships like they're airplanes: "Yes, at massive volume. Maybe as high as 10,000 ships per year."

Elon also says "Starship 4 will be another 10% to 20% longer", commenting on this image showing the current Starship iterations compared to everything else:

SpaceX's launched the 2025 Starlink Progress Report (75-page pdf here), confirms they are aiming to double Starlink Kit production in 2026 to nearly 50,000 kits per day on average, all made in the USA.

Starlink direct-to-cell now has 6 million monthly customers.

Over 400 million people now have access to Starlink direct to cell across 22 countries and 6 continents. In 2025, Starlink added 4.6 million new customers (9.2 million now!), served 20+ million cruise passengers, served 21+ million airline passengers, equipped over 1,400 commercial aircraft and 800 business jets, 150k vessels/boats, etc.

All in that report, with some good charts and images, go check it out.

Meanwhile, I found this interesting post of VP of Starlink engineering at SpaceX sharing how Starlink is beginning a significant reconfiguration of its satellite constellation focused on increasing space safety, including lowering all the satellite orbits:

xAI

xAI just announced reaising a $20B Series E funding round. That means they’ve now raised more than $37B in total over the past 18 months.

I’m waiting until they get to Series X 😆

xAI's Colossus 2 latest progress pictures. Notice the letters spelling out “MACROHARD” on the building, clearly referencing to Microsoft.

The third building xAI just bought there, Elon says: "xAI has bought a third building called MACROHARDER. Will take xAI training compute to almost 2GW."

Currently, xAI has announced that it now has over 450,000 GPUs active across all its sites, with construction in progress to bring that number to 900,000 GPUs by Q2 2026.

Neuralink

Elon writes, on Neuralink:
"Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, almost entirely automated surgical procedure in 2026.
Device threads will go through the dura, without the need to remove it. This is a big deal."

The Boring Company

The Boring Company has officially begun limited Vegas Loop rides to Harry Reid International Airport. "

The ride includes both a tunnel portion and a long surface portion, with the latter shifting to subsurface when the 2.25 mile Airport Connector twin tunnels open, hopefully in Q1 2026."

COMMUNITY CORNER

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See you soon!

— Jaan, Ted, and Sean.

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