Tesla Space #83: what happens if you fall asleep in a robotaxi

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Welcome to the Tesla Space newsletter, our 83^rd issue.

Another great week behind us, here’s what we’ve got for you in the Tesla Space today:

• Elon looks to be venturing into solar business (not just the rooftop kind);

• Tesla released Q2 delivery numbers — deliveries down, production up, energy again breaking records

• The EV policies in the US changed significantly as the Big Beautiful Bill cuts EV credits and hurts Tesla also in other ways;

• Sightings from Fremont factory hint at the affordable model… maybe?

• Some new videos from the robotaxi service, including what happens if you fall asleep in the car and not exit when arrived;

• Elon on The America Party plans;

…and a lot more. Enjoy!

— Jaan

X OF THE WEEK

Are we going to see Elon venture more directly into solar?

If you pair this with Elon’s rather consistent posts on solar power abundance over the years, and the latest Elon reply “Thinking about it.” on building a solar gigafactory…

something tells me why might hear more about this rather soon. Going for large-scale solar, not just rooftops, does make sense on the overall Muskonomy game.. 

$TSLA

… is down 2.13%  in a week (since Tuesday’s close), now at $294.31 per share. Tesla is now at a $921.30B market cap.

TESLA NEWS

Tesla Q2 deliveries: down, but less than expected.

Tesla delivered 384,122 and produced 410,244 vehicles worldwide in Q2 2025, down 13% year-on-year, while production totalled 410,244 units. Energy-storage deployments hit 9.6 GWh, the company’s highest quarterly figure to date.

As for the first half of 2025, Tesla has produced 772,859 and delivered 720,803 electric vehicles.

Judging how the stock market reacted, it confirms the same as most analysts - they expected a lot worse ($TSLA finished +4.97% that day)

Now that the Model Y ramp-up is done and Model S and X got refreshed, Tesla should be up and running with all sales into the next quarter — we already see the M3/MY production capacity has actually managed to slightly surpass the one of last year (+2.65%).

Tesla has claimed, in its previous quarter earnings decks (and calls) that they remain on track to start the production of new vehicles, including the affordable vehicle, in the first half of 2025. We have not heard about these so far and we’re past the mid-year mark, so if not before, we will certainly hear about it on the earnings call on July 23rd.

Tesla also released their Energy figure: 9.6 GWh, which is again a record for the company and we will likely see more of this given the Megafactory Shanghai recently went online.

Here’s a graph from Tesla showing the true ramp-up of the Energy business:

Tesla will release full Q2 financials after market close on 23 July 2025 and host its results call at 5:30 p.m. ET that day.

The EV policies in the US changed significantly

The EV and Energy policy changes significantly in the US as the Big Beautiful Bill was passed. I wrote a deep dive on everything that changes here, but the immediate difference for customers will be:

• Federal tax credit for new EVs ($7,500) will end on September 30th, 2025.

• Federal tax credit for used EVs ($4,000) will also end on September 30th, 2025.

• The initial $250 annual fee for EV registration is not in the bill so it seems they’ve abandoned it.

I would assume Tesla will have a killer Q3 thanks to this as it will pull the demand in the US forward.

Other changes include ending the commercial clean vehicles credit, terminating the rooftop solar tax credit and the geothermal heat pump tax credit (both from Dec 31st).

There is one caveat in the bill that might be beneficial for some automakers, including EV makers like Tesla: a deduction for car loan interest for American-made vehicles.

From 2025 through 2028, interest paid on loans for purchasing a personal-use vehicle will no longer be considered "personal interest" and can be deducted. To qualify for the deduction, the vehicle, in addition to some other rules, must have “final assembly” occur in the United States. Max deductible interest of $10,000 per year.

Deduction phases out for taxpayers with income above: $100,000 (single) and $200,000 (joint).

Now, we all know Elon has said out loud quite a lot since ~2013 that EVs shouldn’t be subsidised (and also that subsidies should also be cut from oil&gas), but we can’t ignore the fact that removing the $7.5k will change something for Tesla. Tesla is currently responsible of 43.2% of all EV sales in the US (as of Q1).

The other thing here that will change for Tesla, in addition to some supply chain stuff, is that the new bill also eliminates penalties for automakers that fail to meet federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. This will most likely lead to the collapse of the ZEV Credits system in the US, which Tesla has benefitted from.

In other news:

• To celebrate the 4th of July, Tesla made the red, white and blue paint colors free on all new Model S3XY orders in the US (up to $2,500 usually).

• Tesla Australia has introduced a new incentive where buyers can receive an additional $2,000 off the price of a Tesla when trading in a used vehicle.

• The Tesla Model Y has officially become the best-selling car in Türkiye for June, surpassing even traditional ICE vehicles, with 7,235 units sold. This is especially notable because Turkey has their state-owned EV maker, Togg, that is usually doing better than Tesla there for obvious reasons.

PS! If you enjoy these reports and want to support us, consider becoming a Tesla Space Insider — it will give you an edge in all things Tesla.

VEHICLES

There’s another sighting from the Tesla Fremont factory that people think might be connected to the new affordable model, as it seems visibly smaller. You can judge from the image or the full drone video itself:

We can’t comment if it’s actually a notable one or just the Model Y Performance, we’ll wait for more info for that.

The first half of the year has now passed (did you know we’re now closer to the year 2050 to we are to 2000?) but there’s still no clear info on the new vehicles, including the affordable one, Tesla was supposed to launch production for. It’d make sense to be as close to the mass production as possible when introducing it to the public to not cause any Obsorne effect on the sales of current models. We’re waiting.

• Watch tip: video of one of the first RWD Cybertrucks seen out in the wild, with the soft tonneau cover.

• Tesla is aiming to launch the Cybertruck off-road armor package in the coming weeks.

• Newport, Kentucky expands its police fleet of three Model 3s now with four Tesla Model Ys, after a successful EV pilot program. According to a financial breakdown presented at the city meeting, the Tesla Model Y significantly outperforms the department’s traditional vehicle of choice, the Dodge Durango, in every single cost category over a five-year period.

ROBOTAXI SERVICE AND CYBERCAB

We got this glimpse of the insides of the Cybercab door in the Tesla 4th of July video.

The early feedback from Tesla Robotaxi service users was that they wish you could set a pickup location with a pin, instead of fixed addresses. Tesla has now already implemented this, and also added predetermined pickup points when you start dropping your pin:

Tesla is clearly working on expanding within Austin now, as the fleet validation vehicles with the sensor racks on top of them have been seen all around, especially Downtown Austin area (the current geofence is in South Austin)

A selection of robotaxi operation videos from Austin from this week:

• Tesla Robotaxi just parked in a parking spot when picking us up from Target. We’re used to the “pick me up at the curb” type of situations but this makes sense doesn’t it.

• AIDRIVR pretended to sleep in the robotaxi when it arrived. After the ride was complete and the car was standing there for 2 minutes, Tesla Robotaxi Support line called and asked if they are okay.

• Tesla has also become more confident over harsh weather, here’s a video of it driving in heavy rain.

SUPERCHARGING

Tesla shared its Supercharging growth: the team opened 3,500 new Supercharger stalls in Q2. That's a new Supercharging stall going live every 37 minutes!

It also means around 371 new locations (so 1.4 new locations every day), given they average at 9.4 stalls per site.

Tesla delivered 1.6 TWh of energy in Q2, in 45 million charging sessions.

Compared to the Q2 in 2024, Tesla grew 18% year over year in new stalls, and 26% in sessions / energy delivered.

With the 67,316 Supercharging stalls at the end of Q1, Tesla should be at 70,816 Superchargers today (give or take), and ~7,533 locations globally.

Now that's changing the EV adoption better at scale.

Tesla says site arrival improvements are rolling out in the apps now
→ Icons indicating Valet Only or Pay to Park
→ Notifications for Pay to Park, Parking Floor and Access Code
→ All details easily accessible in the site card

Tesla has officially opened one of the largest Superchargers in the world in Lost Hills, California. Later this year, it will be the biggest in the world. It is already larger than any site in Europe, not to mention compared to the off-grid ones.

• 84 Supercharger stalls are open now, and another 84 will be opened later this year for 168 total.

• Next to the site, there is 11 MW of ground mount solar & canopies, on 30 acres of land

  

  the solar next to the charging site

• The site also includes 10 Tesla Megapacks with 39 MWh of storage

• There are 12 pull-through stalls for the EV owners that are towing

• The grid connection is only at 1.5MW, ahead of a future expansion

• There’s enough power to charge 1,000 cars a day off solar assuming 7.5 solar hours/ day and 82kWh battery packs.

Max de Zegher from the Tesla team wrote that the site is “Already cranking 4.5MW of solar juice to customers this afternoon. Critical capacity for this corridor.”

Tesla just achieved two more milestones, which it celebrated with wrapping the Superchargers accordingly:

Tesla app update v4.46.5 hints at a new feature called Rate-Based Charging that will enable the Wall Connector to automatically charge the vehicle via the Powerwall when electricity prices are low.

MUSKONOMY

SpaceX / Starlink

Elon: “It’s time to retire the Space Station and focus on Mars”

In support of those impacted by flooding in Texas, Starlink is providing Mini kits for search and rescue efforts – ensuring connectivity even in dead zones – and one month of free service for thousands of customers in the region. The Starlink team and TMobile have also enabled basic texting (SMS) through their Direct to Cell satellites for TMo customers in the areas impacted by flooding in Texas. Additionally, anyone in the impacted areas with a compatible smartphone will be able to receive emergency alerts from public safety authorities.

SpaceX is planning to develop a sprawling private recreation complex on land next to the Starlink factory. The “Project Echo” plan would develop basketball, pickleball courts, picnic areas & potentially a floating deck for kayaks.

Both Hawaiian and Qatar Airways set a new standard for in-flight Wi-Fi thanks to Starlink’s high-speed connectivity

The America Party

Like it or not, news on this one will replace the occasional DOGE section of the Muskonomy. Since at least some of Elon’s focus will be on this and it will likely impact the rest of the Muskonomy too, I’ll keep bringing some details in.

Elon made another poll on X about starting the America Party, and then said:
“By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it! When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy. Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.”

In a follow-up, he wrote: “The way we’re going to crack the uniparty system is by using a variant of how Epaminondas shattered the myth of Spartan invincibility at Leuctra: Extremely concentrated force at a precise location on the battlefield.”

Elon on the current plans: “Backing a candidate for president is not out of the question, but the focus for the next 12 months is on the House and the Senate.”

As you’d expect, Trump also launched a bunch of words at Elon for starting his plans for starting third party.