Starship Timeline Updated

SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell has updated the timeline for Starship’s first orbital launch, saying that Starbase should be ready for a first attempt as early as June or July.

While SpaceX has been speeding through several of the many tests needed to ensure safe flight before the launch, many experts believe that the actual launch date will probably be closer to 3-6 months away. This is largely due to factors that SpaceX can’t push through on their own, such as the FAA environmental assessment.

Bureaucracy is slow at the best of times, but not only is SpaceX attempting to get launch certification for the pad at Boca Chica, Texas; they’re also trying to get a launch licence for the largest and most powerful rocket ever designed. It was inevitable that the end-of-May date CEO Elon Musk predicted earlier was going to be pushed back.

However, that isn’t to say the agency isn’t working fast. Just a few days ago, the FAA released an update to their Programmatic Environmental Assessment (PEA) of Starbase that showed four of the five processes had been completed. Apparently, the FAA believes the assessment will be completed by the end of the month.

Now, the PEA being successfully completed doesn’t mean the FAA will issue a licence - SpaceX still needs to meet FAA safety requirements for Starship to launch.

And even if the FAA hands out a launch licence in time for the summer window, SpaceX may not have a complete Superheavy booster and Starship by then. Testing is going fast, but the company has yet to fit a booster with a full array of Raptor-2 engines, meaning they’ll likely require several tests with the full 33-engine arrangement before safely considering a vehicle for flight.

It’s not impossible though. We’ve seen SpaceX overcome some major design and test hurdles quickly before. Starship 24 - the assumed launch candidate - is well on its way to being completed, and after the successful Booster 7 tests last week, it seems SpaceX is very close to testing a full launch array on another booster - maybe B8. Finally, SpaceX still needs to test the orbital launch site itself.

With all those tests still needing to be done, it seems likely the launch date will slip again - even if nothing goes wrong in testing. But it’s not impossible, and SpaceX is certainly primed to give it a go. The next few months should be quite a busy time for the rocket company.